Are People Better Than Polls at Predicting Electoral Outcomes?

[11.02.2012]

Welcome to the Morning Buzz, PRRI’s morning dose of religion-related news with a shot of data – because what doesn’t liven up a morning round-up like some public opinion numbers?

An important question with a disturbing answer.

Can people predict elections, even when polls can’t?

If you had any doubt that this was an expensive election cycle, just take a look at the price tag. (The cost of ad spending in battleground states is similarly shocking.)

A new Pew poll reveals that few religious leaders are endorsing candidates from the pulpit, despite some encouragement to do so. While more than half of Americans who attend services regularly say their clergy have encouraged them to vote, only around 1-in-5 say their pastor or religious leader have spoken about the candidates themselves.

At CNN, author Jonathan Dudley recalls the days (in the not-so-distant past) when conservative Christian theology supported abortion in some circumstances. Today, 64% of white evangelical Protestants say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.

This, my friends, is true commitment to the internet.

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