Florida Exit Polls Show That Romney’s Blueprint for Success Still Has a Few Holes
Mitt Romney walked away with a decisive victory in Florida yesterday, clutching fistfuls of much-needed momentum for his previously flagging campaign (although, like his rivals, he did not escape the battle for the Sunshine State completely unscathed). The exit polls from this first “mega-state” provide some clues as to how Romney can wrap up the nomination, but they also reveal weaknesses that may continue to vex him through the primary and into the general election. Below, some of the most important findings from the exit polls:
Romney found strong backers among female voters.
Perhaps because of their reservations about Gingrich’s character, women flocked to Romney in the Florida primary, giving him a 24-point advantage over the former Speaker. We’ll have to see how much of this has to do with Republican women’s less favorable feelings about Gingrich, as opposed to their enthusiasm for Romney. A strong majority (61%) of men said that they viewed Gingrich favorably, while women were nearly evenly divided. This gender difference could continue to help Romney through the primary, but once he gets to the general election, it’s more of an open question. After all, President Obama has strong support among female voters too.
Negative campaigning worked.
The barrage of negative advertising that characterized the past ten days left everyone involved (including Tom Brokaw and NBC) licking their wounds. But at least from Romney’s perspective, this bloody free-for-all was a net win. Seventy-one percent of voters polled said that campaign ads were a factor in their vote, and Romney scooped up a majority (53%) of these voters, compared to Gingrich’s 28%. Romney’s victory was even more decisive among the 41% of voters who said the campaign ads were important to their vote (59% went for Romney, compared to only 25% for Gingrich). Some of the ads were almost satirical in their negativity, even if they were pointing to real issues. Who knows what we have to look forward to in the next ten months – but it’s likely that it won’t be pretty.
Romney overcame hurdles among Latino voters.
Despite fears that Romney’s strong stance against popular immigration policies like the DREAM Act would upset his chances among Florida’s sizeable Latino population, Romney carried the Latino vote handily, with 54% of this important demographic voting for him compared to Gingrich’s 29%. Romney also won among voters with a wide range of opinions on the best immigration policy.
The hold outs: White evangelicals and the Tea Party.
Romney performed better among Tea Party supporters and white evangelical Protestants in Florida than he did in South Carolina, which isn’t saying a lot. The Tea Party’s staunchest supporters seem to still be ambivalent about Romney, and while his support is also climbing among evangelicals, both of these important Republican constituencies have yet to embrace Romney. In fact, Gingrich narrowly beat Romney among white evangelical Protestants and born-again Christians (38% vs. 36%), and while Romney carried voters who somewhat support the Tea Party, he lost by a substantial margin among voters who strongly support the Tea Party (28% vs. 33%).
The Washington Post’s “Behind the Numbers” blog points to two other potential vulnerabilities for Romney going forward, including his narrow margin of victory among economically frustrated voters and dissatisfaction among voters who don’t believe that Romney is sufficiently conservative. Electability may, however, win the day – and Romney certainly scored big in that category yesterday.

